Home loans, gas, groceries: How the Iran war could upend Trump’s touted economic gains
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By Shannon Pettypiece
Published on March 4, 2026.
The Iran war, which began less than a week ago, could jeopardize President Donald Trump's touted economic gains. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted markets and potentially increased supply chains, threatening to drive prices higher for American consumers on everything from home loans to groceries. Consumer sentiment has also decreased over the past year. The extent of the economic impact from the conflict will depend on how long it lasts. The president has acknowledged that oil prices will increase due to the conflict, but has taken steps to get shipments moving in the region. The fighting in Iran has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway in the Persian Gulf that provides passage to over 20% of the world's oil. Goldman Sachs estimates that inflation could rise to 2.7% by May from the rate of 2.4% in December.
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