Markets have poor scorecard for spotting AI losers
By Edward Chancellor
Published on April 24, 2026.
Alisdair Nairn, a writer and investor, has highlighted that the stock market has a poor record of identifying losers in technology booms. He suggests that when a new technology arrives, it is often easier to identify the losers than the winners. Examples include the first British steam railway opened in 1825, but British canal stocks remained complacency. The dominant U.S. telegraph company, Western Union, ignored the threat posed by Alexander Bell's new telephones 50 years later. The market's ability to identify winners and losers during the late 1990s was poor, with companies in sectors that were not directly exposed to the internet being dismissed as “old economy” and their valuations marked down. However, the valuations of so-called “new economy" stocks soared to the moon. During the Everything Bubble of 2020 and 2021, energy stocks rebounded after the green tech bubble burst and rebounded around 130% over the past year.
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