The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current policy of holding interest rates, but new economic projections will reveal how the central bank is dealing with two conflicting realities, including the Iran war's energy shock. Inflation is running hotter than expected, and it is unclear how a sustained oil shock could negatively impact the economy. The projections indicate that most Fed members retain a bias to ease policy this year and in 2027. However, Sam Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macro, warns that the biggest risk is if new projections show that the median Fed official now expects rates to stay on hold through year-end. The Fed will also release its Summary of Economic Projections, including estimates of how interest rates will evolve, for the first time this year.