The Trump administration may be forced to moderate the Iran conflict as borrowing costs rise, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 45 basis points since late February. Gold advocate Peter Schiff questioned why President Trump escalated the war, only to reverse course before markets opened. The Kobeissi Letter suggests this level is the same level where Trump halted sweeping Liberation Day tariffs in April. The rising swap spreads increase the implied cost of funding for the U.S. government, making it more expensive for the heavily-indebted federal government to issue new bonds. If the yield breaks the 4.5%-4.6% range, it could rise to 5%, a crucial threshold for risk assets.