Potentially strong El Niño could mean less hurricanes, but also a cool, wet winter
By Bill Kearney
Published on April 10, 2026.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has warned that a strong El Niño may be brewing, which could result in a lighter hurricane season in South Florida but also a wet winter. This could be due to rising sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, enough to shut down La Niña. While it is unclear if El Niño will be strong during summer, there's about a 75% chance it will be moderate to very strong. A stronger El Niño could influence both the Atlantic hurricane season and winter months in Florida. The strength of the El Niño depends on east-west trade winds continuing to wane throughout the summer. The 2015-2016 El Niño was considered "very strong" by meteorologists and produced record-breaking wet weather in South Floridom, including the region's wettest winter since 1932.
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