Global economic growth has outperformed expectations for 14 consecutive months, putting the world economy on track for its longest run of upside surprises since the 2008-09 financial crisis. Citi's economic surprise metric, which measures how economic data in the prior three months differs from consensus forecasts, has been in positive territory since January 2025. This suggests that economists underestimated the impact of geopolitical turmoil and U.S. tariff hikes. However, analysts predict that the oil price surge will increase in the months ahead, potentially leading to inflation and interest rate increases.