Gulf crisis weakens Trump’s hand in his coming talks with Xi
By Charbel A. Antoun
Published on May 9, 2026.
The unresolved war in the Persian Gulf is threatening to weaken President Trump's hand in his upcoming summit with Xi Jinping in China. This could give China its strongest non-tariff bargaining chip before the first handshake. The closer the summit draws, Washington is urgently trying to freeze the Iran crisis. The U.S. is pushing for a 20-year enrichment freeze, while Iran is offering five. This disagreement reflects a fundamental disagreement over whether Iran retains any sovereign nuclear program at the end of this process. The maritime dimension remains structurally asymmetric, with Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and the U.K. controlling Iranian port access through blockade. Saudi Arabia's refusal to use its airspace or bases for military action against Iran exacerbates the dilemma. The outcome of the upcoming summit will determine the terms on which America enters the Beijing summit will decide.
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