Large Polymarket, Wall Street bets on Trump’s war news under scrutiny
By Erin Hale
Published on March 25, 2026.
The White House may be involved in insider trading following well-timed trades regarding Iran war news, which have led critics to suggest that traders have made bets worth hundreds of millions of dollars since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. The most prominent example of suspected insider trading is Polymarket, a platform that allows users to anonymously bet on event outcomes without uploading a document. The platform has been linked to predictions about outcomes in the war, including the identity of the next leader of Iran, the date of a US-Iran nuclear deal, and when Iran will launch military action against Israel. Researchers have found numerous instances of anonymous new accounts betting big but also correctly just before a critical event like the February 28 Israel strikes. Additionally, an independent on-chain analyst named Andrew 10 GWEI discovered 38 accounts that he believes belong to one person and netted over $2m betting correctly on the February28 strikes. These accounts had a nearly 100 percent success rate. The recent round of questionable trades occurred before the markets opened in the US and before Trump announced he was planning to delay threatened attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure after "VERY good and productive discussions" with Tehran.
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