The Federal Reserve (Fed) is now more likely to raise interest rates by summer than by mid-summer, according to the Atlanta Fed's Market Probability Tracker. This is a significant shift from where these probabilities stood before the U.S.-Iran war began. The rise in oil prices has raised concerns about stagflation, which occurs when an economy is marked by high inflation and weak growth. The producer price index rose by 0.7% in February and also rose 3.4% on an annual basis. A Fed rate hike could pose risks to commodities, as Wall Street expected the war to drive gold prices up, but inflation and Fed rate hikes could offset any gains. The Fed last raised interest rates in its July 2023 meeting.