The oil market is in 'backwardation,' analysts say. Here’s what that means for energy prices
By Chloe Taylor
Published on March 26, 2026.
Oil prices have been volatile since the U.S.-Iran war began four weeks ago, with analysts suggesting that the market has entered a state of "backwardation" that suggests a risk premium has been baked into energy prices. Despite expectations of a swift resolution to the conflict, oil prices have remained elevated despite mixed messages from Washington and Tehran regarding peace negotiations, missile strikes in the Middle East, and a backlog of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Front-month global benchmark Brent crude futures are still hovering around the $99-a-barrel mark, almost 36% higher than where they stood before the U.,S. and Israel's first strikes on Iran on February 28. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate futures for April delivery were last seen trading around $87.76, around 30% higher from before the war began. Toni Meadows, head of investment at BRI Wealth Management, said that markets are playing cautiously as they don't know the full story of what's happening. He also warned that it would be difficult for the U.'S. to achieve total degradation of Iran's nuclear ambitions by bombing the country by bombing them.
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