More rain, less water: Why the water crisis in Mexico is getting harder to solve
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By Tracy L. Barnett
Published on May 1, 2026.
After a year of unusually abundant rainfall, Mexico's water crisis appeared to have eased, with reservoirs recovering and reservoirs receding. However, new research suggests that this is not a sign of recovery, but a warning sign of a climate system growing more erratic. The National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) paleoclimatologist Priyadarsi Roy suggests that Mexico is entering a more volatile water era, with longer, more intense droughts punctuated by short bursts of heavy rainfall, which often fail to replenish water systems. While groundwater, Mexico’s most critical reserve, is being depleted faster than it can recover, while rising temperatures accelerate evaporation. Rapid urban expansion is disrupting the natural water cycle. The implications of this change could lead to millions of displaced people in Mexico, potentially leading to up to 6 million people moving to the United States due to water scarcity.
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