Bitcoin's recent gains have not been enough to convince some industry observers that the largest cryptocurrency, which is still 40% below its record, may result in further drops. Some analysts predict a drop to $40,000, a 70% drop from its all-time high, according to bitcoin analyst James Check. While this move is unlikely, it would be statistically extraordinary. The Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, which ranks bitcoin’s price on a historical percentile basis, suggests that when modeled at $40k, bitcoin registers as a “0.4 event, falling in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes would be below any meaningful deviation across all major anchors.