Hot inflation report throws cold water on Fed rate cuts
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By Dana Sullivan Kilroy
Published on May 13, 2026.
The April inflation reading has fueled concerns about the Federal Reserve's outlook for interest-rate cuts in 2026, but it is expected to make incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's job more difficult during his first year leading the world's most powerful central bank. Both President Donald Trump and Warsh have stated that the central bank should focus on reducing the cost of short-term borrowing by cutting interest rates to 1% or below. However, this has led to expectations that rate cuts could begin as soon as the June Federal Open Market Committee. Most economists, traders, and Fed watchers predict that the earliest American consumers, investors, and businesses will see lower interest rates in 2027. With inflation levels rising due to energy costs fueled by the Iran War and the stabilization of the “low-hire, low-fire” labor market, experts expect Warsh to be constrained by price pressures. The inflation rate is also due to a growing divide among his policymaking colleagues at the Fed who appear to be firmly settling into dovish or hawkish camps. The Fed's dual mandate from Congress requires maximum employment and stable prices, but lower rates can fuel inflation, but higher rates can weaken the job market and increase borrowing costs. The April Consumer Price Index report was higher than estimates, with inflation excluding food and energy costs rising 0.4%.
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