Why $100 oil is no longer spooking equity markets
Airfind news item
By Stephen Jen
Published on April 30, 2026.
The article suggests that $100 a barrel oil doesn't mean what it used to, as adjusted for inflation and energy consumption as a percentage of GDP as a factor in global equity markets' resilience. The author points out that the global economy has become less oil intensive and the oil shock is not as severe as it was before the Iran oil shock. This is due to the fact that global oil consumption has decreased and global consumption of oil has decreased. The analysis suggests that while a 50% crude oil price shock in the 1970s had a negative 1.0% impact on U.S. GDP over eight quarters, it would likely only have a negative 0.2% impact at present. The article also suggests that the impact of big oil price shocks on US inflation may have declined to a quarter of the level seen five decades ago.
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