JPMorgan analyst Michael Hanson has estimated that the gas price shock from the Iran war will significantly impact household spending due to higher gas prices. The bank's base case is that the refund effect outweighs the energy hit. JPMorgan's total refund benefit for 2026 is estimated at $200 billion, with perhaps $180 billion of this amount recognized in the first half of the year. Independent research suggests that the average U.S. household will spend an additional $740 on gas this year due to the oil price jump following the Iran War. However, independent research indicates that independent research makes the gap appear even tighter than JPMorgan's initial base case suggests. Lower and middle-income households are likely to be hit hardest due to smaller refunds while spending a greater share of their income on gas. The impact is not evenly distributed.