Mexico's economy grew only 0.6% in 2025, its weakest performance since the pandemic, due to a contraction in industrial activity, federal budget austerity, and uncertainty over US tariffs. The Bank of Mexico raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.6%, up from a prior estimate of 1.1%. The IMF maintained a 1.5% forecast for 2026, while the OECD projects 1.3–1.4% expansion. Forecasters are cautiously optimistic about the recovery of GDP in 2026. The country attracted $40.9 billion in FDI in Q4 2025, surpassing the full-year 2024 record. The US-China trade war is the dominant catalyst, with average US tariffs on Chinese imports standing at 57.6%. Mexico’s infrastructure commitment is equally large, with a public-private investment plan earmarked for 2025 and 2030.