Kalshi Offers $1 Billion for a Perfect March Madness Bracket—Just as Warren Buffett Did 12 Years Ago
By Annabel Burba
Published on March 18, 2026.
Prediction market platform Kalshi is recreating a contest backed by billionaire investor Warren Buffett in 2004 that offers $1 billion to anyone creating a perfect bracket for the 2026 NCAA men's basketball tournament. The odds of this feat are extremely slim, with a 1 in 9.2 quintillion chance. To sweeten the deal, the contest offered $100,000 to the top 20 best-performing brackets. Kalsh is also guaranteeing $2 million in total prizes, though splitting it up by giving $1 million to its top bracket and $1m to charity.
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