Underestimating the enemy is a dangerous path for Trump to follow
By Alexander J. Motyl
Published on March 22, 2026.
Donald Trump may have underestimated the Iranian regime, following similar mistakes by Vladimir Putin and Adolf Hitler, who also underestimated their opponents. These leaders often start wars in the expectation that their opponents will lose quickly and then face unexpected outcomes such as stalemates or defeats. Examples of this include the “arrogance of power”, the belief that one's powerful state or influential culture is superior due to their power, which often translates into the right to impose one's will on others. The author suggests that if Trump underestimated the Iran regime, a defeat is highly unlikely. The article also notes that the Iranian government has proven to be more resilient than Trump imagined and that the longer the war takes, not the larger the number of deaths and the monetary cost of Iranian deaths, it may increase.
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