Global central banks signal shocking shift on interest-rate bets
By Mary Helen Gillespie
Published on March 21, 2026.
Global central banks are rapidly shifting towards interest-rate hikes due to the Iran War, which is driving oil prices higher and forcing policymakers to rethink earlier plans for rate cuts in 2026. The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest-rates steady this week due to concerns that oil shocks will raise prices across the global supply chain. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England also held rates steady. Major global brokerages now predict a higher likelihood that the ECB and BoE will raise interest rates, possibly as early as next month. The most immediate pivot was in Britain, where traders were expecting a rate cut due to inflation reaching its 2% target. Goldman Sachs expects a 75-basis-point hike with sequential 25 basis-point increases starting in June, but Goldman added that an early April hike was also possible.
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