Oil prices have surged sharply since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, leading to a surge in crude prices, increasing fuel costs and strain on households across the globe. The main international benchmark for prices rose more than 8 percent to $103 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a naval blockade on Iran. The oil trade can be divided into two distinct markets: physical sales and contracts for future oil deliveries. Since the start and Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, prices in these markets have significantly diverged, reflecting a growing mismatch between perceptions of supply and the reality on the ground. While countries like Saudi Arabia have increased alternative supply routes, the global economy is still facing a daily shortfall of about 8 million barrels of oil. The gap between spot and futures prices has widened beyond what is typical since the conflict began.