Analysis: Trump predicted an oil catastrophe if the war didn’t end. The clock is ticking
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By Zachary B. Wolf
Published on August 1, 2026.
In June, President Donald Trump warned that oil reserves would run out if the war with Iran didn't end, causing "bedlam" according to Goldman, a senior reporter for CNN Business. The strategic reserve of oil maintained by the US in case of emergencies is dwindling, and commercial reserves are also dwindling. Despite these warnings, Goldman believes that China, the largest oil producer in the world, has saved off economic catastrophe by drawing down stockpiles more quickly than anticipated. The Strait of Hormuz, which was reopened three weeks ago, remains closed again. Goldman also noted that China had more than a billion barrels of oil in reserve prior to the war.
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