What falling wage growth says about where the U.S. economy is heading
By Brian Cheung
Published on April 4, 2026.
The slowest wage growth since 2021 and a decrease in wages for non-supervisory workers, according to government data. This comes as the Iran war and rising gas prices threaten to make things more expensive. As diesel costs rise to $5.50 per gallon, retailers and grocers are dealing with higher transportation costs. Amazon plans to charge sellers a 3.5% "fuel and logistics-related surcharge" starting on April 17. Airlines like United and JetBlue are raising bag fees to offset high jet fuel costs. The most recent inflation data showed prices rising by 2.4% year-over-year. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen from 5.99% at the start of the war to 6.45% on April 3, amid concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to prevent inflation.
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