Why the oil and gas price shock from the Iran war won’t just fade away
By Nikolay Kozhanov
Published on March 23, 2026.
The US-Israeli war on Iran has caused a significant impact on global energy markets, with the benchmark Brent crude oil price rising to nearly $120 per barrel and the price of natural gas reaching a peak in 2022. This comes after the Russia-Ukraine war saw a temporary shock and eventual market normalisation, but this would come at a higher economic cost for the region and the world. The price of oil and gas prices will not just disappear, but rather a physical chokepoint, which has disrupted the supply of oil, gas, and oil and oil infrastructure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates this is the largest supply disruption in the global oil market history. The IEA's decision to release 400 million barrels of oil is unlikely to have the same effect due to the physical outage of the physical disruption. The natural gas market is also facing a crisis, with 112 billion cubic metres (bcm) of global LNG or 20 percent of global trade, normally passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
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