Stable India growth outlook masks hit to vast informal sector, say economists
By Pranoy Krishna
Published on April 28, 2026.
India's economic growth outlook is largely unchanged despite the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Economists warned that data won't adequately capture the impact of the country's vast informal sector, which accounts for around 60% of GDP. The extent of this stress is unclear due to limited real-time data on fuel costs, jobs, demand and small businesses. India's gross domestic product is expected to grow 6.7% this fiscal year, a slight slowdown from the 7.0% predicted for the year to March 31, 2026. However, inflation was expected to average 4.5% this year, within the Reserve Bank of India's 2-6% target range.
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