Expectations for the next Fed rate cut get pushed back after hot inflation report
By Jeff Cox
Published on March 18, 2026.
A hotter than expected wholesale inflation reading for February has pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction this year. This comes after a report that the producer price index posted its largest gain in a year. Futures markets have taken any realistic chance of a reduction until at least December, with odds of a decrease at the final Fed meeting falling to about 60%. This comes as persistently higher inflation, brought on by tariffs, the Iraq war, and increased services costs increases. The report came just before the Federal Open Market Committee was due to release its latest interest rate decision. The Fed is currently maintaining its dual mandate of stable prices and low unemployment.
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