Goldman Sachs has concluded that oil supply shocks caused by the Iran war have disrupted global business stability. The firm's analysts estimate that higher oil prices will reduce payroll growth by roughly 10k per month net through year, netting out three conclusions about the U.S. labor market. They also found that the impact on job gains in certain industries from increased prices will be more subtle. The last time gas prices were high was after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Brent crude prices reached $123.64 per barrel. Goldman also noted that higher gas prices on the labor market are more muted than they were 50 years ago. The company expects the unemployment rate to rise to 4.6% by 2026Q3.