Oil prices are at four-year highs, potentially increasing U.S. production, but don't expect a new boom as companies in onshore shale, the most nimble part of the industry, are often reluctant to invest beyond current plans. Factors such as uncertainty over the duration of the Middle East war, which is affecting Middle East supplies, and a decline in forward price curve, could also impact investment. The Iran war could change the outlook a bit, but analysts aren't expecting the typical surges in the 2010s and the post-COVID rebound. The Energy Department's stats and analysis arm has already revised its outlook from a slight decline next year to a slight rise instead.