March jobs report expected to show labor market stabilizing before Iran war
By Rob Wile
Published on April 3, 2026.
The March jobs report is expected to show that the U.S. labor market remained relatively stable, but experts have noted that the Iran war has already shifted the economic landscape. The full impact of the war had not yet impacted the job market, with gasoline prices rising to over $4 a gallon. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has lowered its real-time gross domestic product estimate to 1.9%, down from more than 3%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the hiring rate in February fell to just 3.1% of the US workforce, a level last recorded in April 2020. However, this is only slightly above the 2.8% hiring rate recorded during the 2008-09 Great Recession. The job openings also fell in February, though they appear to be stabilizing overall. There is a debate about how many jobs the US would need to add each month to keep the unemployment rate stable.
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