The biggest bet of Trump’s life
Published on March 1, 2026.
Donald Trump's decision to engage in an all-out air assault on Iran represents the biggest political risk of his presidency, with the American public divided on whether the U.S.-Israeli attacks were necessary, with 41% of registered voters believing the strikes were necessary to prevent Iran from threatening the US and its allies, while 42% believed Trump should have pursued diplomacy. A Morning Consult poll also showed a split on whether military action was justified, with only 27% of Americans "approve" of the military attacks, compared to 43% who disapprove. A second poll by YouGov also found a difference in the question of military action being justified. Despite this, there is no suggestion that Trump will be initiating a ground invasion of Iran, unlike former President George W. Bush's previous actions in 2001 and 2003, which resulted in significant backlash for Bush's legacy. The first three U.K. military deaths in Iran have now been confirmed, with a retaliatory strike in Israel killing nine people and civilian deaths reported in Kuwait and the UAE. There is also a risk to Trump of choosing yet another Middle East entanglement, and the risk of an oil price spike in an election year.
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