U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in March, largely due to the war with Iran, rising gasoline prices and receipts at service stations. Retail sales increased by 1.7%, following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in February. Economists had predicted a 1.4% advance. Sales were also boosted by a rise in auto sales, likely due to manufacturers offering incentives. The average tax refund was up $351 through March 27 compared to the same period in 2025, according to Internal Revenue Service data. The conflict with Iran has resulted in global oil prices jumping more than 30%. There are concerns that pain at the pump could shift spending away from other segments, and potentially impact tax refunds.