A survey of economists has found that crude oil prices would need to rise to roughly $138 a barrel in order to put the US at a serious risk of recession. This comes after Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime route for 20% of the world's oil supply, has caused the largest-ever energy supply disruption. Economists believe that this disruption will not impact growth or unemployment, but likely increase inflation. The survey also found that economists see a 32% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 27% in January. The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range as uncertainty over the duration of the Iran conflict has hampered projections. However, economists predict that the Consumer Price Index will rise 2.9% in December, a rise from 2.6% earlier this year, and now expect higher inflation.