The ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran has resulted in a multidimensional geopolitical crisis, with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatening or targeting vessels. Pakistan's mediation, one of the few diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran, could play a significant role in two of these scenarios. The other scenario involves a coalition of regional states undertaking independent military operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without direct US involvement. This could be driven by protracted economic haemorrhage, exhaustion of diplomatic options, or domestic political pressure. The stability of the military coalition is also uncertain as each state has an incentive to free-ride on military contributions of other members. However, Israel's opposition to a negotiated settlement and its concern that US engagement with Iran could undermine its strategic objectives could create tension within the coalition. The third and most analytically plausible near-term scenario involves Iran using the threat of sustained closure as leverage in negotiations.