The 2026 NFL draft class will test the patience of all but one team, the Las Vegas Raiders, who are expected to select Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 pick. However, there is a significant drop-off in the remaining quarterbacks' projections. Despite this, the New York Jets, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers all have varying degrees of quarterback uncertainty. Potential first-round picks such as Ty Simpson could potentially reach the first round, but there is only a 15.2% chance that one of the other four quarterbacks listed here will develop into an "elite" starter in the NFL. The rankings are based on ESPN's QBASE 2.0 projections for 2026.