China factory prices return to growth after 3 years, beating expectations on surging oil prices
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By Anniek Bao
Published on April 10, 2026.
China's factory-gate prices rose for the first time in over three years, beating expectations due to surging oil prices. Consumer inflation moderated in March, missing economists' forecast of 1.2% growth in a Reuters poll and slowing from a 1.3% rise in February. Producer prices also rose by 0.5% from the previous year, ending their longest deflationary streak in decades. The Iran war, now in its sixth week, has pushed oil prices sharply, with the international benchmark Brent June contract at $96.7 a barrel after a 33% rally since the war began. Morgan Stanley has reduced its forecast for China's GDP growth this year by 10 basis points to 4.7%, while it suggests that if the Mideast conflict continues to deteriorate, China's real GDP may slow to 4.,2% this year. The People's Bank of China maintains its cautious monetary easing stance.
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