Wall Street playbook says buy when war breaks out. How this time could be different
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By Alex Harring
Published on March 3, 2026.
Investors are wondering if the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran will trigger a significant market reaction, as oil and natural gas prices rise. Henry Allen, a London-based strategist at Deutsche Bank, stated that geopolitical events usually don't cause sustained market reactions. He suggested that a larger spike in oil could result in a slide of more than 15% in the S & P 500. However, he noted that specific factors such as an oil price jump of at least 50% to 100% that holds over several months could trigger a recession or significant slowdown. The S&P 500 saw a significant rebound on Monday, but as the war expanded, the broad index tumbled.
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