What is, and isn't, worrying about 100% debt to GDP
By Neil Irwin
Published on May 4, 2026.
The United States has reached a milestone where the national debt is larger than its gross domestic product (GDP), reaching a 100% level. This is not the level of this ratio but the trajectory, which is expected to continue increasing. The Congressional Budget Office predicts it will reach 120% in 2036. The debt-to-GDP ratio is higher than the CBO's GDP growth projection, which would imply an ever-rising debt. The CBO projects federal revenue in the next few years will be 17% to 18% of GDP, while expenditures will be north of 23% of GDP. The potential saving grace for the debt is if artificial intelligence increases productivity by expanding economic activity, which could create problems for federal government revenues dependent on taxing labor income.
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