Wall Street Panicked Over an AI Fantasy. The Reality Is Far Less Dramatic
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By Vaclav Vincalek
Published on April 25, 2026.
The article discusses the 'extreme and improbable' economics of Citrini’s AI report, which suggested that IBM, DoorDash, and other companies mentioned in the report fell 4% or more after the report's release of a blog post by Anthropic describing how AI can help modernize COBOL code. The report also suggested that the unemployment rate printed 10.2% in June 2028, bringing the cumulative drawdown in the S&P to 38% from its October 2026 highs due to a negative feedback loop with no natural brake, and a human intelligence displacement spiral. The author argues that the claim that AI can replicate the core functionality of a mid-market SaaS product in mere weeks is an attempt to create a software development department with annual costs of $1 million. However, the author acknowledges that this claim is based on the fact that companies like Amazon.com, Microsoft, and Asana.com have had similar issues.
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