Analysis: How Swalwell’s exit — and Trump’s entrance — reset the California governor’s race
By Ronald Brownstein
Published on April 17, 2026.
The California governor's race is becoming more uncertain as Democrats are more optimistic about avoiding a one-two GOP finish in the June primary, which would ensure a Republican governor next year in the nation's largest blue state. However, they have less clarity about which of their party's candidates is most likely to reach the general election, where any Democrat will be a strong favorite over any Republican. This change came after President Donald Trump's endorsement of Republican Steve Hilton increased the odds that Hilton would beat his GOP rival, Chad Bianco, but also reduced the chances they would evenly split the limited GOP primary vote. The second big event was the collapse of Rep. Eric Swalwell’s campaign following allegations of sexual abuse.
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