New Bill Aims to Ban Prediction Market Bets on Nukes and the Oscars
By Bruce Gil
Published on March 18, 2026.
U.S. lawmakers have introduced a bill to ban several types of bets on prediction market platforms, including bets on government actions, terrorism, war, assassination, and events where an individual knows or controls the outcome. The bill was introduced by Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar in both chambers of Congress. This comes amid scrutiny over bets made on global conflicts, such as the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. While platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have banned insider trading, they promote the idea that experts can use their knowledge to improve the market's accuracy.
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