State panel projects deeper 2026 revenue decline from federal tax changes
By Robin Opsahl
Published on March 12, 2026.
The Iowa Revenue Estimating Conference (RECC) has projected that state revenues will decrease by 9.3% from fiscal years 2025 to 2026, a larger drop than previously expected, due to federal tax changes. The previous REC estimated that Iowa's net revenues would decline by 8.8% from 2025-2026, with an additional loss of roughly $46 million, resulting in a 9. 3% decrease in state revenues. The decrease is largely due to lower corporate tax receipts from provisions enacted through the federal “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act, which were allowed in tax and spending law approved by President Donald Trump and GOP lawmakers in Congress. Kraig Paulsen, director of the Iowa Department of Management and REC chair, said he does not see this estimate as a reason to be pessimistic about Iowa’s fiscal future. The Legislative Services Agency (LSA) and Reynolds administration also presented different revenue estimates for FY 2027, while the state executive branch predicted a revenue increase of 5.8%. The LSA projected a 3.1% growth to $8.36 billion while the Reynolds administration predicted a 5.4% increase to $7.58 billion in revenue.
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