The Iran war is set to result in a supply deficit in 2026, according to analysts, a significant swing in forecasts. The International Energy Agency has projected that the war has reduced global oil supply by around 11 million bpd, while ANZ bank estimates that roughly 9 million bPD of crude supply has been effectively removed. These immediate shocks are expected to cause an average production loss of 2.13 million bper across the entire year. The market is expected to see its steepest deficit in the second quarter before returning to a surplus in the fourth quarter. However, analysts warn that further disruptions could occur due to ongoing disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. An estimated 136 million barrels of crude oil and products are currently stuck in the Gulf due to the conflict.