Goldman Sachs has warned that the current oil price surge will reduce U.S. payroll growth by roughly 10,000 jobs per month through 2026, and the bank expects the unemployment rate to rise 0.2 percentage points to 4.6% by Q3 2026. Higher oil prices accounted for about half of this increase. Goldman's economist, Pierfrancesco Mei, found alignment with the Federal Reserve’s FRB/US model and academic research. The bank also noted that the U.K. economy is less sensitive to oil shocks than it was in the 1970s and 1980s, with the oil intensity of US GDP significantly falling significantly. Goldman also highlighted that the shale revolution created a domestic energy sector that generates an offsetting boost to investment and hiring when oil prices increase. However, significant improvements in extraction productivity have limited job gains in oil extraction.