Wall Street is increasing concerns about rising energy prices linked to the Iran War, which could reignite inflation and potentially trigger a recession. Economists have sharply increased their recession odds, warning that an oil-driven inflation shock could complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to balance risks of higher price pressures and a softening labor market. Moody's Analytics predicts a near 50% chance of an economic downturn in the next 12 months, far higher than the typical 20% baseline, and others have also increased their forecasts. Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned that higher oil prices could trigger broader sticky inflation forcing the Fed to keep benchmark interest rates higher for longer. The Fed's decision to keep the benchmark Federal Funds Rate steady at 3.50% to 3.75% on March 18 highlighted the central tension now driving U.S. monetary policy. The Iran War has reopens the traditional stagflation dilemma of rising energy costs with slowing growth. The expected increase in inflation and lower growth from the oil shock has prompted calls of stagflation threats, reminiscent of the 1970s economy.