Rising oil prices could undermine President Donald Trump's signature legislative achievement, the "big beautiful bill" which includes smaller withholdings and sweetened tax refunds. Raymond James, a strategist for the oil price, suggests that if oil prices remain elevated by more than $20 compared to before the U.S.-Iran war, consumers could spend $150 billion more at the pump. The Tax Foundation estimates that the individual tax cuts in the bill will total $129 billion for 2025, with most of this money expected to be distributed through tax refunds this filing season. However, Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, estimates that a $20 increase in oil prices would cause consumers to spend more on gasoline in Q4 2025. Despite this, many analysts have compared the surge in prices this time around to when Russia invaded Ukraine.