A global food price shock looms as Middle East war rages on. Here's who will be hit hardest
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By Lee Ying Shan
Published on March 12, 2026.
The Middle East conflict has disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially leading to a global food price shock. The strait is a key artery for oil and gas shipments and for fertilizers critical to global agriculture. Disruption could result in higher farming costs, reduced crop yields, and more expensive food. Raj Patel, a research professor at the University of Texas, also warned that fertilizer disruptions linked to the conflict could amplify global food pressures through several channels simultaneously. The first region likely to feel the impact includes countries within the Persian Gulf, where food imports from Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia are heavily dependent on the shipping route. The greatest risk may lie in Sub-Saharan Africa where farmers rely heavily on imported fertilizer.
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