Polymarket Traders See 73% Chance of Hormuz Strait Reopening by May 31
By Vince Quill
Published on April 17, 2026.
Polymarket prediction market odds of the Strait of Hormuz reopening by May 31 have risen to 73% following news that Iranian officials have temporarily reopened the Strait as part of a ceasefire deal. However, traders placed the odds at 40% by the end of April. The news of the temporary reopening of the strait led to a surge in Bitcoin's value, but the truce between the US and Iran is considered "fragile". The conflict in Iran has impacted financial markets, impacting both crypto and energy prices. The fallout from the conflict will likely impact financial markets for most of 2026, potentially delaying any interest rate cuts until Q3 2026.
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