The world's largest crypto prediction market, Polymarket, has been hit by rumors that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been dead. These rumors were fueled by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claiming it had hit Netanyahu's office. However, a data source on Polymarket provided a strong signal, suggesting that the contract for "Netanyahu out by March 31" was trading at around 4 to 5 cents, indicating a roughly 4 to5% probability of him leaving office before the end of the month. This led to a conspiracy theory that Netanyahu had been killed and the government was conducting a cover-up. Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, the Polymarket platform has become a real-time geopolitical intelligence terminal. In October 2025, the Intercontinental Exchange, parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, invested $2 billion into Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation.