Wall Street legend Marc Chaikin has issued a warning about a potential crash in 2026, citing over 100 years of historical market cycle data and his proprietary 20-factor Power Gauge rating system as the most likely starting point for a significant market downturn. His analysis suggests that a 65% probability of a bear market in 2025 with average projected losses of roughly 20% from the peak. Chaikins' prediction is based on a pattern that analysts call the “Mega Melt-Up” in which technology combines with easy market access and abundant credit. The S&P 500 closed about 9% below its all-time high in late March 2026 and the index is down roughly 4% year-to-date. The American Association of Individual Investors Sentiment Survey shows bearish sentiment at 43% as of the week ending April 9, 2026.