K-shaped economy is real, per New York Fed research
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By Neil Irwin
Published on May 1, 2026.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has concluded that the K-shaped economy, which is largely attributed to wealth gains from financial assets, is not new. Since January 2023, real retail spending has grown at an uneven pace across all income groups, with high-income households gaining about 7.6% through March 2026. However, low-income families have been squeezed by inflation, leaving them with little protection against further shocks. The New York Fed data also indicates that real spending has turned negative across all types of households, even as the gap between high- and low income households persists. The study raises questions about whether this reliance on a single cohort is a new vulnerability or a longstanding norm of American consumption.
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