The world's central bankers may be attempting to reach into the psyche of business executives, labour unions, and ordinary households in real time to understand how they are dealing with another energy shock. This comes as policymakers are considering increasing interest rates to combat rising inflation. However, they may only increase interest rates if they believe a surge in energy costs from the Iran war will increase other prices, leading to inflation expectations across the economy. This could increase the bar for rate hikes as policymakers tend to wait for more evidence to confirm policy errors. Despite developing new tools since the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks have been unable to accurately measure expectations. The stakes are high as investors now expect the ECB to raise rates two or three times this year, the Bank of England twice, and the Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.